Analytical and standard study of the impact of oil price fluctuations on fiscal policy - Case of Arab oil member countries in the OAPEC during the period 2000-2018

Abstract

The study aims to find out the impact of oil price fluctuations on the fiscal policy of Arab oil countries. A sample of Arab member countries in OAPEC was selected; Algeria, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, Bahrin, Kuwait and Iraq during the period (2000-2018). To achieve the the objectif of this study, these countries were classified in terms of their oil revenues and government spending. Based on cluster analysis technique. We esmimate a model based on the technologie of Panel Data for determine the source of individual effects among countries, on the value of crud oil exports and government spending.

 The study reached the classification of Arab oil countries into three groups. Saudi Arabia topped the first group, while the second group included Bahrain, Algeria and Qatar. While the other countries in the third group; met in terms of the variables included in the analysis. Which indicate differences in the individual differences between the Arab oil countries in terms of the value of crude oil exports and government spending. The estimated models and trade-off tests show that the fixed-effects model is appropriate for estimating the relationship between oil price fluctuations and government spending. The fact that there are differences in the fixed limit that differ between these countries, Due to its available financial resources and its policy design strategy. The results also showed that there is no long-term equilibrium relationship to the impact of oil price fluctuations on government spending