Standard Study of Liquidity Movement in Algeria Post Case of Ouargla During the Period 2010-2023

Abstract

The aim of this study is to analyze the liquidity movement and identify the key factors influencing on it, as well as to build future forecasts. This is done through an attempt to apply the Box-Jenkins method for time series analysis, utilizing monthly withdrawal data from the study period (2010-2023). To accomplish this study, a descriptive and case study approach was employed. One of the main findings is that relying on the Box-Jenkins model alone cannot lead to acceptable long-term forecasts due to external factors that impact the model's efficiency.
Additionally, it was found that the cash flow statement of the institution does not assist in interpreting the phenomenon, as the Algerian Post Office primarily serves as a money distribution channel.