The reality of the cereal gap in Algerian economy: An analytical and predictive approach for the period (1970-2020)

  • سلامي أحمد كلية العلوم الاقتصادية والعلوم التجارية وعلوم التسيير
Keywords: prediction, gap, Box Jenkins Methodology, Algeria, cereal


This study aims to analyse the direction of the cereal gap in Algeria as one of the main factors causing the food security problem. Moreover, modelling this gap and forecasting its future levels until 2020 using the Box-Jenkins method. The results of the study predict that the value of the cereal gap in Algeria will worsen during the period 2015-2020, indicating a threat to food security in Algeria. Therefore, the study recommended that the country seek to limit the breadth of the food gap by rehabilitating the agricultural sector within economic policy and giving priority to improving and intensifying agricultural food production, especially cereals; it is the right way to avoid the risks of food dependency.